China Coast Guard ships have run "routine voyages" in Japan's EEZ south of Yonaguni since June. Calling it routine is how the precedent gets set.

According to AIS data, the research vessel Zhong Shan Da Xue sailed through the South China Sea from May to June 2025. However, Sun Yat-sen University declared that the vessel was active in the South China Sea in August 2025, which contradicts the AIS data. The announcement stated that Sun Yat-sen University had conducted sea-trials of Haiqin, a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) capable of operating at depths of up to 6,000 meters, and that Zhong Shan Da Xue had deployed the Haidou-1 autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) at the same time. This marked the first scientific survey conducted by coordinating two different unmanned vehicles via a single support ship¹⁴.

Why use a warship when a fishing boat will do? Civilian hulls buy deniability, and each cable cut is small enough to absorb. That a feature not a bug. We spill the tea.

“China prefers ‘invisible hybrid warfare’ (隐形混合战) over kinetic warfare.  Covert irregular warfare enables China the means to quietly overwhelm its targets not only physically but economically and politically as well – all without firing a shot.  The use of civilian fishing vessels not only provide plausible deniability but legitimizes China’s claims and salami-slicing tactics as lawful and just.”

600+ vessels in coordinated East China Sea formations, buoys in the Yellow Sea, sustained South China Sea patrols. A decade of coercion below threshold.

PLA exercises are growing sophisticated in a specific way: they run on dual-use civilian shipping. Capability that appears in no order of battle - reducing the reaction time of Taiwan military.

On March 1-3, Chinese Maritime Militia continued to exercise in the East Sea, possibly timed to send a message to the US and Japan.

The abnormal fishing formations cross PLA military theatre boundaries — which points to military planning directed above theatre level. There is nothing local about it. It’s just fishy.

Twice — late 2025 and again in January — up to 2,000 fishing boats formed a wall near the median line. We built the case from AIS and satellite imagery.

Beijing’s relentless pressure on Taiwan now includes oil rigs: twelve permanent or semi-permanent structures and dozens of associated ships. The structures, which are owned by state-owned firm CNOOC, include seven rig structures, three floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels, and two semi-submersible oil platforms. All are located within Taiwan’s claimed exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near Pratas/Dongsha Island.